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With shifting geopolitical tides and figures like Donald Trump advocating for a swift end to the war, the future of Ukrainian refugees remains unclear. Many continue to reside in Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, and Kyiv will face a hard challenge of facilitating their return — an issue crucial for the country’s post-war recovery.

By Natália Silenská | Euractiv.sk, Nazar Hlamazda | gwaramedia.com, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl, Ondřej Plevák | Euractiv.cz

The latest UN data shows that there are nearly seven million Ukrainian refugees globally. According to Eurostat, as of 31 January 2025, almost 4.3 million Ukrainians were under the temporary protection of the European Union. 

Volodymir Paniotto, Director General of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), said that 50,000 Ukrainians leave the country each month, and nearly 100,000 refugees monthly find jobs abroad and decide not to return. KIIS research shows that four out of six million refugees plan to become citizens of the hosting countries.

Once the war eventually ends, Ukraine will face many critical questions, including how to ensure the return of those who left in order to stabilise the country's future and economy. 

Additionally, what will happen to those who illegally evaded mandatory military service during the conflict? Will they face fines or even imprisonment?

Journalists from Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia and Czech republic joined forces to answer many of the pressing inquiries and to examine the situation with war refugees in their respective countries.

The prospects of Ukrainian refugees returning home

Daria Mykhailishina, a senior economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy, estimates 1.2 to 2.2 million Ukrainians may return post-war, depending on conditions. She noted that safety and economic stability are two of the most important factors for refugees returning. 

As of the end of 2024, 53% of refugees say that the complete end of the war could encourage their return. 31% cite “the absence of hostilities and airstrikes” as necessary, while 23% emphasise the cessation of combat in their home region.

Among economic factors, the most significant motivators is an increased standard of living in Ukraine (46%) and the ability to find a well-paid job (33%), said Mykhalishina.  

Evhenii Holovakha, the director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, said in an interview with Ukrainian media Unian that 50% of refugees could return, if Ukrainian authorities “meet the criteria” for their adaptation to after-war society — help with their employment, housing, education, and healthcare. 

By improving the conditions for refugees’ lives and encouraging them to return in this way, the country could balance out this predicted outflow of population after the martial law is lifted.  

Polls of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center suggest about 20% of those currently living in Ukraine plan to emigrate after the war ends, potentially reducing the population to 23 – 25 million.

What do Ukrainians think of those who fled the country? 

Polls show that in Ukrainian society, there is a belief that men should not be abroad. In 2023, the Centre for Insight in Survey Research revealed that most Ukrainians perceive women who went abroad positively, especially if they have children.

On the other hand, military-aged men who left the country illegally are perceived negatively, and military-aged men who left legally are seen neutrally. 

Negative perception of male refugees and Ukraine's need for conscripts pushed authorities to introduce restrictions for men who left Ukraine. 

In 2024, a new procedure for issuing passports to Ukrainian men eligible for conscription abroad went into effect. Under this, their military registration documents should have been checked before a new passport was issued. The regulation was, however, later eased by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

As of now, the State Migration Service shares the data about conscripts abroad with the Ministry of Defense automatically when a new passport is issued even if they do not have military registration documents.

Can Ukrainian men be prosecuted for draft dodging?

Lidiia Karpliuk, a lawyer and partner at Grain Law Firm, said that it’s necessary to distinguish between the men who left Ukraine legally from those who violated the law. 

The lawyer explained that men who legally left Ukraine before or after the full-scale invasion would only face a fine for breaking military registration rules, facing fines ranging from 372 € to 548 €. This would apply only if they failed to report a change of address or ignored a draft notice sent to their Ukrainian residence.

Those who left illegally — during martial law after receiving a draft notice — would be also penalised for breaking military registration rules, but under Article 204-1: for crossing the border outside official checkpoints, using fake documents, or traveling without proper permission. The fine ranges from 30 € to 112 € or up to 15 days' arrest.

Proving an offense can be tricky: Karpliuk added that proving an illegal border crossing can be tricky. Authorities can only prosecute these violations within three months of discovering them and no later than a year after they happened. 

They have to prove that the violation occurred, which is challenging to track. If more than a year passed, there are no legal consequences.

The only exception is if someone left after receiving an official draft order to report for duty in a military unit. In that case, they could face charges under Article 336 of the Criminal Code for draft dodging.

Lidiia Karpliuk said that even if changes were made to the Criminal Code of Ukraine in the future, introducing criminal liability for leaving the country during mobilisation, only those who left after the changes came into effect would be subject to prosecution. Law that establishes criminal liability does not have retroactive effect. 

Situation in Poland, Slovakia and Czech republic

Significant rise of Ukrainian minority – what the numbers reveal

Poland: Poland welcomed the highest number of refugees during the initial phase of the war in Ukraine, with many Polish citizens opening their homes and offering aid.

UNHCR data shows that over 952,000 refugees were registered in Poland in 2024. This represents a significant increase from the start of 2022, just before the war, when 1 to 1.3 million Ukrainians lived in Poland. Currently, 1.55 million Ukrainian citizens hold valid residence permits in Poland.

Ukrainians are by far the largest group of foreigners in Poland, accounting for 78% of all foreign nationals settling in the country. The majority of Ukrainian citizens reside in Poland under temporary protection.

According to the International Rescue Committee's 2024 report, most refugees arrived at the beginning of the conflict escalation. They were mostly adults between the ages of 35 and 69. 

Slovakia: Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Slovakia was home to a significant Ukrainian community.

According to Eurostat data, at the end of 2021, Slovakia ranked among the EU member states with the highest number of Ukrainian citizens holding valid residence permits relative to its population size — up to 54,000 in a country of 5.4 million.  

Following the war’s outbreak, the number of Ukrainian refugees transiting through or settling in Slovakia surged. 

According to data from the Interior Ministry provided to Euractiv Slovakia, as of 28 February 2022, nearly 59,000 Ukrainians were registered in Slovakia. Of these, over 51,000 held temporary residence permits, while more than 7,500 had permanent residence.

By 28 February 2025, this number had grown significantly, stabilising at nearly 200,000 Ukrainians living in Slovakia. Among them, close to 52,000 hold temporary residence permits, more than 14,500 have permanent residence, and around 132,000 Ukrainians hold temporary refuge status.

Czech republic: Ukrainian citizens began to come to the Czech Republic in the early 1990s, mainly to work. The number of legally registered persons has gradually risen to almost 200,000 (2021), making Ukrainians the largest minority in the country.

A full-scale war has increased these numbers considerably. According to estimates by the Ministry of Interior, the Czech Republic granted 660,000 temporary protections to Ukrainian refugees from the beginning of the conflict in February 2022 until the end of 2024. 

About 390,000 of them are still active now, as about 40% have already gone elsewhere. In 2025, therefore, there are about 600,000 Ukrainians living legally in the Czech Republic, which has a population of 10 million.

According to Jaromír Mazák of the STEM analytical institute, the Czech Republic is doing very well in integrating Ukrainians and is not losing out economically. 

“We have managed very quickly to get into a situation where more is collected in taxes and benefits than is given in direct support for refugees,” he told Aktuálně.cz.

The evolution of public opinion on hosting Ukrainian refugees

Poland: While Poles continue to view Ukrainians favourably, with a Social Perception of Migrants Index (SPMI) score of +65, this number has decreased from its peak of +114 in January 2023.

Recent data indicates a change in how Polish people feel about Ukrainian refugees. As of today, 34% of Polish respondents perceive a shift in their feelings towards refugees, which is a 9-percentage point increase since January 2023. A significant 95% of those who noted a change expressed a worsening attitude.

The primary reason for this negative shift is the perceived "entitled attitude" of Ukrainian refugees, with 47% of respondents noting this behaviour among refugees between May and June 2024. Currently, 46% of Polish respondents still perceive this behaviour.

This "entitled attitude" is characterised by the belief that refugees "deserve everything" and encompasses demands for social benefits, lack of gratitude for assistance, and the desire for more rights than Polish citizens.

Slovakia has historically been vocal in its opposition to accepting immigrants into the EU. However, the reception of Ukrainian refugees was markedly different.

Initial public sentiment was overwhelmingly supportive, with many Slovaks offering aid and even housing to those fleeing the war. A Focus agency poll for Denník N from March 2022 showed that more than 85% of Slovaks supported accepting Ukrainian refugees.

However, over time, and with the increasing spread of Russian propaganda — spread in Slovakia in record amounts — public support began to decline.

By February 2023, an EU-funded Reviv EU survey still found that a majority of Slovaks supported hosting Ukrainians, but concerns, particularly economic fears, had grown.

 For example, nearly 57% of respondents believed that the arrival of Ukrainian refugees could weaken Slovakia’s economy – when in reality, Slovakia could significantly benefit from Ukrainian workers, as the country struggles to fill many low-skilled jobs.

When asked whether incoming foreigners made Slovakia a better or worse place to live, nearly half of respondents expressed negative views toward Ukrainians.

Czech republic: According to the STEM, which has been tracking Czech attitudes towards the war for a long time, a stable majority of people have supported the stay of Ukrainian refugees in the Czech Republic in recent years, with 54% in January 2025. 

However, as the institute notes, “Czechs remain wary of refugees, perceiving them more as a threat than as an asset, although this ratio is gradually shifting towards a more conciliatory attitude”.

According to the polls, the public supports easier participation of Ukrainians in the labour market, but at the same time there is a prevailing belief that the arrival of more refugees should be limited and their number in the country should be gradually reduced. 

Reservations about refugee integration are linked more to fears of language barriers, different cultures or different behaviour than to competition for jobs. 

According to the STEM findings, it seems that Czech society is taking an increasingly pragmatic approach to Ukrainian refugees, with an emphasis on their active integration.

Political landscape surrounding Ukrainian refugees

Poland: The media and politicians have heavily influenced the discourse surrounding Ukrainian refugees. Although not the main focus of the current presidential campaign, the refugee issue is frequently exploited by the candidates.

The party who most often use anti-Ukrainian resentment in their rhetoric is the far-right Confederation, whose presidential candidate is Sławomir Mentzen, as pointed out by political marketing expert Mirosław Oczkoś.

"We must not forget that Ukrainian refugees are guests in our country, and we wish them a speedy return to their free and independent homeland. We do not agree with our leaders who feel more like 'servants of the Ukrainian nation' than standing by Poland," the party said in its manifesto.

In January, deputies from the Confederation prepared a draft amendment aimed at equalising the status of Ukrainians with that of other foreigners, introducing changes in their access to health care and regulating their employment.

Other parties and presidential candidates also mention Ukrainian refugees in their campaigns. 

Karol Nawrocki of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) is doing so more often, “especially after the change of US administration and the return of Donald Trump, who treats Ukraine in a rather dismissive way,” Oczkoś told Euractiv.pl.

While the ruling coalition is divided on the refugee issue, it's a popular topic for candidates like Rafał Trzaskowski, who proposes limiting state benefits to refugees who actively contribute to Poland's economy. 

“Despite the fact that refugees contribute more to the Polish budget than they take, misinformation about them continues to spread,” according to Oczkoś. He also notes that while support for Ukraine has slightly decreased, “the refugee issue isn't a dominant campaign message, except for groups like the Confederation.”

Slovakia: PM Robert Fico (Smer-SD) and several members of his government have gained notoriety for their meetings with Russian officials and for using pro-Kremlin rhetoric regarding the war in Ukraine.

Fico does not hesitate to blame the EU, NATO, or Ukraine for the conflict, frequently repeating debunked disinformation about “Ukrainian Nazis killing Russian-speaking civilians in Donbas” or NATO allegedly “provoking” Russia into war. 

However, despite hostile rhetoric toward government in Kyiv, Fico’s coalition has largely refrained from directing similar rhetoric at Ukrainian refugees.

Since the war began, Slovakia has held three elections — regional (2022), parliamentary (2023), and presidential (2024). While Ukraine was a key topic in the latter two, ruling politicians primarily focused on fears of the war spreading and halting of state-funded military aid.

It was not until this year that government rhetoric mentioned Ukrainian refugees. At one point, Fico threatened that if Ukraine did not restore gas transit thought this territory, Slovakia could reduce the support provided to Ukrainian citizens living in the country. 

He has also downplayed the scale of anti-government protests in Slovakia, suggesting that a significant portion of demonstrators “were merely Ukrainians” – which was not true.

“We still maintain a communication dichotomy in Slovakia, distinguishing between military aid and humanitarian aid,” Peter Dubóczi, a disinformation expert from Infosecurity.sk, told Euractiv Slovakia. 

“However, since Fico’s December visit to Moscow and the return of Donald Trump, boundaries appear to be shifting again, as (Slovak officials) feel increasingly justified in their stance,” he added.

The growing pro-Russian orientation of Slovak leaders has not gone unnoticed in Ukraine. As the news portal Postoj highlights, Ukrainians initially tried to distinct Fico from Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, a well-known Ukraine sceptic. 

“By not blocking EU aid to Ukraine, Fico appeared more pragmatic,” Kyiv Independent journalist Martin Fornůsek told Postoj. “However, his meeting with Putin firmly placed him in Orbán’s camp.”

Czech republic: As far as the political representation is concerned, the government composed of the ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, STAN and until recently also the Pirates, supports Ukraine and its citizens on Czech territory very strongly.

It is more complicated for the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies, which is the lower house of Parliament. 

Although the populist ANO movement generally supports Ukrainian refugees, its leader and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has made various critical statements about them. For example, he spoken out against extending temporary protection or accused the government of spending too much money on Ukrainians.

SPD movement, which is close to the far-right, is the most radical in this respect. According to them, the government “should give no more money” to the Ukrainian refugees, and say they “should return home”.

The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
The project is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.