Last year, the Czech Republic donated to Ukraine over 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, Czechs contributed millions to humanitarian collections, and approximately €5.9 million from the state budget went to support Ukrainian refugees. But this level of aid may come to an end in the autumn as the country heads into elections, with polls predicting a victory for the opposition, which is less inclined to continue assistance to Ukraine.
Written by Dávid Pásztor | EURACTIV.cz
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, the Czech Republic has positioned itself firmly on Ukraine’s side. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS) was among the first foreign leaders to visit Kyiv in March 2022. The Czech government was also quick to supply heavy weapons and open its borders to a significant number of Ukrainian refugees.
However, as the war stretches into its third year and domestic political dynamics shift, so does the approach of Czech political parties. With parliamentary elections approaching in the autumn, a change in government appears likely, which could also mean a change in policy toward Ukraine.
Czech support for Ukraine in numbers
The current government is pushing to maintain support for Ukraine while it still can.
"Last year, the Czech Republic supported humanitarian projects in Ukraine and for Ukrainian refugees abroad to the tune of CZK 147 million. I am proud that tens of millions were sent directly by Czech citizens as part of volunteer collections. By the way, thanks to our support for Ukraine, and therefore the security of Europe, we ranked 12th on The Good Country Index," Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský (independent) told Euractiv.cz.
Czech Defence Minister Jana Černochová (ODS, ECR), has similar view. "We are in constant contact with the relevant partners in Ukraine and regularly assess what assistance is currently most beneficial for Ukraine. The Ukrainians appreciate, among other things, that we can quickly adapt to their needs and find ways to provide assistance. We will continue to do so," she told Euractiv.cz.
Lipavský said there is a broader foreign consensus on continuing support to Ukraine. "During my trip to the US [in February 2025], my partners and I agreed that we must continue to arm Ukraine so that it enters peace negotiations from a position of strength. For this reason, we will continue the ammunition initiative," Lipavský said, referring to the so-called Czech ammunition initiative.
The initiative, in which Czechia acts as a facilitator and streamlines global large-calibre ammunition supplies to Ukraine, has been running for over a year. At the recent Munich Security Conference, Czech President Petr Pavel stated that the Czech initiative had supplied Ukraine with "some 1.6 million large-calibre munitions". The Czech Ministry of Defence adds that at least "500,000 of these were 155 mm artillery ammunition." However, figures vary—while the president speaks of "1.6 million pieces," the ministry says it is "1.5 million."
"Deliveries continue to go on. We cannot disclose the exact numbers for security reasons. We can state that in recent months we have been sending tens of thousands of large-calibre ammunition to Ukraine. We want to continue this support to Ukraine and are therefore negotiating with our partners for further funding. In total, two dozen countries have joined the ammunition initiative," said Karel Čapek, spokesman for the Czech Ministry of Defence.
Shift in political will?
Despite these efforts, analyst Pavel Havlíček from the Association for International Affairs warns that Czech support has already waned.
"In terms of communication, the government is avoiding the topic of Ukraine because it is unpopular with voters. The Ukraine programme [the Humanitarian, Stabilisation, Reconstruction and Economic Assistance Programme for Ukraine 2023-2025] is to end after 2026 and move to other priorities, or other forms of financial support, which is nowhere near the level of similarly large countries in our region or beyond," Havlíček believes.
He also points out that compared to, for example, Scandinavian or Baltic countries, the Czech Republic has not really reacted to Donald Trump's election or his rhetoric. "Sweden or Finland have additionally allocated huge resources for the Czech context, which we can only dream about," Havlíček adds.
What happens after the elections?
The autumn Czech parliamentary elections could bring a political shift, with the opposition ANO movement, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, currently leading the polls. ANO left the European liberal Renew faction last year and co-founded the far-right Patriots for Europe alliance, alongside Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), Hungary’s Fidesz, and Spain’s Vox. The voting record of MEPs from this faction suggests that continued aid to Ukraine is not among their priorities.
"Therefore, it can also be assumed that, if the elections end according to the polls, there will be some changes in relation to Ukraine, although the extent of these changes is difficult to estimate," Havlíček said.
He refers to statements by the shadow prime minister, Karel Havlíček of the ANO movement, who has been negative about the ammunition initiative. "Other key representatives on the right and left of the political spectrum in the Czech Republic have also expressed the same views," the analyst adds.
The current Defence Minister Černochová still hopes that Ukraine's defence will remain unchanged even after the elections. "Stopping our aid to Ukraine is unthinkable. It must continue as long as Ukraine needs it. It is our moral duty, but at the same time we are doing it for ourselves - we must not let Ukraine fall for the sake of our security. I believe that any political representation that forms the government after the elections will be aware of this," she told Euractiv.cz.
AMO analyst Pavel Havlíček does not share the minister's view. "On a whole range of issues, the future government will be rather in the drag of events and major developments on the international scene, especially from the US, but also from Poland, the UK and some other international actors. But it can be expected to shift again - as it has in the past - to the camp of the middle actors," he said.
"(The future government) will not stand out too much in this context, as it did, for example, in the case of the Czech munitions initiative, whose further sustainability remains uncertain," Havlíček assessed.
The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
The project is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.
