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Ukraine is striving for European Union membership, aiming to open additional negotiation clusters this year. Experts argue that its accession could not only strengthen Central and Eastern Europe but also drive reforms within the EU itself.

By Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Euractiv.pl

Ukraine formally applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022—just four days after Russia’s full-scale invasion. In an accelerated process, it was granted candidate status on June 23, 2022, as both a symbolic and strategic gesture of support.

Following reforms in four key areas, the European Council approved the start of accession negotiations on December 14, 2023. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes for a breakthrough in 2024, targeting the opening of negotiation clusters during Poland’s and Denmark’s presidencies.

Ukraine is eager to speed up the process, but its progress depends on both internal reforms and the EU’s readiness. It also faces competition from ten other candidate countries, some of which—particularly in the Balkans—are further along in the accession process.

During a meeting with students at the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Zelensky expressed optimism:

"During Poland's presidency, we want to open several negotiation clusters, and in the second half of the year, during Denmark's presidency, additional ones. This is a huge opportunity for us, as both countries are very supportive of Ukraine."

Game Changer for the EU

"Ukraine’s EU integration is becoming one of the defining geopolitical challenges of the 21st century. It has the potential to reshape not only Ukraine’s future but also the EU itself—shifting the balance of power within the bloc and strengthening the role of Central and Eastern Europe," states a report titled Ukraine on the Road to the European Union: Realities and Prospects in Light of Poland’s Experience. The study was published by the Warsaw Enterprise Institute (WEI) in cooperation with Ukraine’s Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

According to the report, Ukraine’s vast territory, large population, and economic potential would push the EU’s policy focus further eastward. "Poland could gain a natural ally on key issues such as maintaining strong transatlantic relations and resisting EU centralization," the authors argue.

At the same time, Ukraine’s accession would significantly increase the EU budget. Analysts estimate that its integration could require up to a 20% budget increase, meaning an annual allocation of several dozen billion euros for structural funds and cohesion policy.

However, joining the EU is, above all, a massive challenge for Ukraine itself. "Accession is not just a formal process of meeting criteria—it’s a deep institutional, economic, and social transformation," the report states.

In this regard, Poland’s experience from two decades ago is particularly relevant. But, as the authors caution, "Ukraine’s accession takes place under different circumstances, and the EU has evolved significantly since then.

Catalyst for change

"Ukraine’s integration with the EU could be a turning point for the bloc. It will prompt internal reforms, a review of many regulations, and improvements in how EU mechanisms function. Ukraine’s energy and dynamism are its biggest assets," said Tomasz Wróblewski, CEO of WEI, at the report’s presentation.

He compared Ukraine’s accession process to Poland’s EU entry in 2004:

"Back then, Poland was a driving force behind changes in Europe. I believe Ukraine will play a similar role. We should actively support and facilitate this process."

Wróblewski also pointed to Europe’s economic challenges, emphasizing that "traditional industries are well-integrated and competitive." However, he warned that Europe’s economy has changed, with services now accounting for two-thirds of GDP—yet the directive on the free movement of services remains unratified by all member states.

"This is a serious problem. Capital markets are more integrated in Asia than in Europe," he noted. Citing an IMF report, he highlighted excessive internal EU regulations as another obstacle:

"In industry, regulations account for 45% of costs, while in services, they reach up to 110%. These are enormous barriers to growth."

For the EU to remain competitive, it must be more decisive in some areas while allowing greater flexibility in others.

"If we integrate Ukraine into our financial systems, it could drive the changes we need. The EU has always evolved in response to crises, and right now, we face a geopolitical crisis that demands urgent reforms," Wróblewski stressed.

Shift in Europe’s center of gravity

Ukraine’s accession “will certainly be a challenge for the European Union,” said Maciej Drozd, director of the Energy and Climate Forum at the Polish Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers (ZPP).

As an example, he pointed to regulations under the European Green Deal, which "are tailored to EU standards, but even more so to the levels of France and Germany rather than Central Europe."

"There will be a reality check, not just in the energy sector. Ukraine will face even greater difficulties in adapting to EU laws than the countries that joined in 2004," he noted.

Still, Drozd believes Ukraine’s integration should not be seen as a burden but as an opportunity: "Rather than a problem, it is a chance to shift the European perspective away from just Paris, Berlin, and Rome—further eastward."

Learning from Poland’s path

"Right now, Ukraine is primarily focused on implementing EU regulations," said Ihor Bukowski, CEO of the Institute for Economic Research (IER).

He noted that EU countries take different approaches to implementing laws and standards—something he sees as "both natural and inevitable."

"Regulations are necessary to ensure a level playing field. Some, like those on energy transition and the green economy, are mandatory," he emphasized.

While acknowledging that regulations can be unpopular, he insisted they are essential in certain areas, citing the transport sector as an example.

"Ukraine may feel that some EU rules don’t fully align with its realities, but adaptation is necessary," Bukowski stated.

He stressed the urgency of Ukraine engaging in EU decision-making: "Right now, we are not actively shaping the EU’s future. But for us, it is crucial to join these discussions as soon as possible. Poland serves as an important example in this regard."

Recalling Poland’s 2004 accession, he added: "At the time, some high-ranking politicians called Poland an 'experiment' in European integration. Today, Ukraine is in a similar position."

Structural challenges ahead

A deep structural reform of Ukraine’s state institutions—especially its administration—is essential, argued Piotr Palutkiewicz, Deputy CEO of WEI.

Paradoxically, he noted, international organizations sometimes unintentionally hinder rather than help Ukraine’s transformation.

"Highly paid contracts lure away specialists who could be working on EU alignment efforts. Instead of strengthening Ukraine’s administration, we are weakening it," he warned.

Palutkiewicz also questioned whether Ukraine can meet EU standards in a conventional way: "Ukraine will likely resemble Israel or South Korea—a militarized state with a governance system shaped by the ongoing threat from Russia."

"Even after the war, this threat won’t disappear. Ukraine won’t be able to fully disarm and focus solely on EU integration," he pointed out.

This could spark debates over whether Ukraine meets EU democratic standards, with concerns about excessive centralization or even semi-authoritarianism.

However, Palutkiewicz stressed that, above all, Ukraine’s fate hinges on the war: "The outcome of the war will determine everything—its economy, governance, reforms, and EU accession. Everything depends on how the war unfolds and ends."

The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
The project is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.