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Ukrainians contributed almost 3% of Poland’s GDP last year, but most plan to return home after the war. Their departure could leave major gaps in the labour market, while growing prejudice is making many think twice about staying.

Written by Barabara Bodalska, Euractiv.pl

Last year, Ukrainians generated almost three per cent of Poland’s GDP, yet only a small fraction intend to remain in the country once the war in Ukraine ends. In the meantime, workers from Asia and South America are gradually filling positions once held by Ukrainians in the domestic labour market.

Experts warn that the departure of Ukrainian workers could cause serious disruptions to the Polish economy, particularly in the construction and industrial sectors. At the same time, Poles’ attitudes towards their eastern neighbours have become more critical, which in turn discourages Ukrainians from staying in Poland.

 The presence of Ukrainians benefits the Polish ecenomy

In 2024, Ukrainian refugees contributed 2.7% of Poland’s GDP, according to a June report by Deloitte for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

The report found that 69% of Ukrainian refugees of working age are employed in Poland, though many work below their qualifications. “One-third of refugees with university degrees hold positions that require higher education,” the authors note.

Despite this, research by the Gremi Personal Analytical Centre shows that 85% of Ukrainians in Poland are satisfied with their earnings relative to their qualifications. Moreover, 70% say they manage to save a small amount of money each month.

The study concluded that the entry of Ukrainian refugees into Poland’s labour market not only failed to increase unemployment or reduce real wages, but actually contributed to higher employment among Poles and improved productivity in Polish companies.

“All evidence indicates that, as long as they remain in Poland, refugees from Ukraine will continue to have a positive impact on the economy, significantly exceeding the costs of the support they have received,” the report’s authors emphasise

 Few want to stay

“Such a large difference in earnings between Poland and Ukraine may influence Ukrainian citizens’ decisions to return home after the war. The question is whether Poland will make an effort to retain the 30% who, according to surveys, declare they might return after the end of hostilities,” says Yuriy Grygorenko, chief analyst at the Gremi Personal Analytical Centre.

Although 80% of Ukrainians in Poland have stable employment, only 13% intend to stay in the country after the fighting ends, according to the centre’s June report. The main reasons are difficulties with integration and experiences of prejudice.

A separate Gremi Personal survey on discrimination and national identity among Ukrainians in Poland reveals that, although most have stable jobs and the possibility of a longer stay, only 11% feel fully integrated into Polish society.

Ukrainians feel disregarded

Public opinion surveys show a steady decline in Poles’ positive attitudes toward Ukrainians. In a 2023 United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska, 64.4% of respondents assessed their presence positively. This year, that figure has fallen by 9.1 percentage points.

While positive assessments still prevail—10.9% of respondents are definitely positive and 44.4% are rather positive—the share of those with a negative view has grown to 33%, including 14% who are rather negative and 19% who are definitely negative. This means that one in three Poles now views Ukrainians in the country critically.

The Gremi Personal survey found that, according to Ukrainians, language is not the main barrier to integration, but rather a lack of acceptance. Half of respondents admitted they never or almost never interact with Poles outside of work, and 69% said they have experienced humiliation or disregard.

Only 18% believe the media portray Ukrainians positively, while 32% perceive coverage as balanced and 26% as stereotypical.

“Ukrainians do not expect privileges or citizenship to consider Poland their home. What they need is stability, a sense of acceptance, and the right to be part of society—not only as employees, but also as neighbours, customers, and parents,” says Damian Guzman, deputy CEO of Gremi Personal.

Risk of an 'immediate shock to the ecnomy'

According to the report’s authors, the persistence of myths that migrants “take jobs” or “exploit Poland’s social system” could prompt a mass departure of Ukrainians, leading to higher service prices, reduced competitiveness, and labour shortages.

Guzman warns that many of those leaving would likely seek a more open EU country, resulting in tangible losses for Poland at a time when the labour market is already under severe strain.

Alex Kartsela, vice-president of the temporary employment agency EWL Group, told WP Finanse that the outflow of these workers would cause “an immediate shock to the economy.”

According to the Ministry of Labour, Ukrainians in Poland are most often employed in manufacturing, construction, industrial processing, administrative services, support activities, transport, and warehousing. The most in-demand workers are those performing simple tasks, production and warehouse staff, and machine and equipment operators.

Ukrainian entrepreneurship in Poland

Over the past three years, Ukrainians have established 77,700 sole proprietorships in Poland, representing 9% of all micro-enterprises registered in that period. Women account for 37% of these businesses.

In 2024 alone, Ukrainians launched 33,200 sole proprietorships—more than double the 15,900 established in 2022 and 16% more than the 28,600 set up in 2023.

During the same period, 11,300 companies with Ukrainian capital were also founded. The most common sectors for Ukrainian business activity are construction (23%) and information and communication (18%), which together account for over half of all Ukrainian-owned companies.

Other notable sectors (13%) include professional, scientific and technical services, trade, transport and storage, accommodation and catering, and healthcare.

Millions displaced by the war in Ukraine

According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), more than 6.9 million Ukrainians have been forced to leave their country since the outbreak of the full-scale war, with a further 3.7 million internally displaced.

The Polish Office for Foreigners reports that nearly one million Ukrainian citizens—mainly women and children—are currently benefiting from temporary protection in Poland. This is the second-largest number in the EU, behind only Germany. In total, 1.55 million Ukrainians hold valid residence permits in Poland.

Ukrainians remain the largest group of foreigners in the country, making up 78% of all foreign residents. Most settle in Mazovia (22%), Lower Silesia (12%), Greater Poland (11%), Lesser Poland (9%), and Silesia (9%). These figures do not include those staying under visa-free travel or on the basis of visas.

The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.
The project is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.